Apple is on track to reclaim the top spot in global smartphone shipments in 2025, ending Samsung’s 14-year run as the world’s leading smartphone brand. According to a new market forecast, exceptional demand for the iPhone 17 series and strategic pricing adjustments have positioned Apple for a historic shift in the global rankings.

@counterpointresearch

Key Highlights

Apple projected to achieve 19.4% market share in 2025

Over 243 million iPhone units expected to ship globally

iPhone 17 series boosts Apple’s YoY performance across major markets

Samsung likely to fall to second position with 18.7% market share

Chinese OEMs face slow growth due to supply-chain challenges

Apple to Lead Global Smartphone Shipments

A report by Counterpoint Research predicts global smartphone shipments will grow 3.3% YoY in 2025. Apple is estimated to lead this expansion with more than 243 million iPhone shipments, securing a 19.4% share. This marks the first time in 14 years that Apple surpasses Samsung in total global shipments.

iPhone 17 Series Fuels Momentum

Apple’s strong performance is driven by the iPhone 17 lineup, which exceeded expectations in key markets:

US market: 12% higher sales vs. iPhone 16 in first four weeks

China market: 18% higher sales vs. iPhone 16 during the same period

The company’s refined memory options and updated pricing strategy have further strengthened demand.

Samsung’s Position in 2025

Samsung is expected to secure the second spot globally with an 18.7% market share and a 5% YoY growth. The Galaxy A-Series—now equipped with upgraded specifications and more competitive pricing—will be crucial for Samsung’s performance in India, Southeast Asia, and MEA.

However, despite the improvement, Samsung is projected to remain behind Apple from 2025 to 2029 due to increased competition from Chinese brands in the budget and mid-range markets.

Challenges for Chinese OEMs

Chinese manufacturers—including Xiaomi, Transsion Holdings, Vivo, and Oppo—are projected to register minimal growth of just 1.7% YoY. Key issues affecting their performance include:

LPDDR4 memory shortages

Rising memory component costs

Domestic market slowdown

Heightened competition across price segments

To sustain growth, these brands may increasingly lean on overseas markets such as India, SEA, MEA, and Latin America.

Conclusion

With the resounding success of the iPhone 17 series and a strong global demand outlook, Apple is expected to surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments for the first time in over a decade. While Samsung continues to strengthen its mid-range lineup, the shifting market dynamics, supply-chain challenges, and evolving consumer preferences indicate a transformative period for the global smartphone industry.

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