Ming-Chi Kuo Predicts iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 Shipments Decline in 2024 Amidst Industry Shifts


As Apple enthusiasts eagerly await the unveiling of the iPhone 16 series, TF Securities International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo provides insights that hint at a challenging road ahead for the tech giant. According to Kuo, shipments for both the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 are poised for a significant decline in 2024. This downturn is attributed to a combination of structural changes in the smartphone landscape, waning demand in China, and the emergence of compelling alternatives such as foldable phones.


Key Points:


Shipment Decline Prediction: Ming-Chi Kuo, TF Securities International analyst, forecasts a significant decline in shipments for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 series in 2024.


Structural Challenges: Apple faces structural challenges, including the rising popularity of foldable phones and the integration of generative AI (GenAI) features in flagship smartphones, impacting traditional iPhone models.


Semiconductor Component Cut: Apple reportedly reduced shipments of key semiconductor components by 15 percent compared to the previous year, reflecting the anticipated decline in overall iPhone shipments.


Declining Demand in China: Waning demand in China, coupled with regulatory challenges, contributes to a 30 to 40 percent year-on-year drop in iPhone shipments in recent weeks.


Market Share Dynamics: Despite challenges, Apple maintains its market dominance in China, with the highest market share during Q4 2023, according to Canalys data.


Samsung’s Strategic Move: Samsung strategically raises its shipment projections by 5 to 10 percent for the Galaxy S24 series, leveraging the appeal of GenAI functionalities in smartphones.


GenAI Race and iOS 18: Both Apple and Samsung are engaged in the GenAI race, with Samsung incorporating AI features in the Galaxy S24 series, while Apple plans to introduce AI features with its iOS 18 update later in the year.


Market Share Details:


Apple in China: Despite a 2 percent drop in iPhone shipments in Q4 2023, Apple maintains the highest market share in China, showcasing resilience amid challenges.


Samsung’s Optimistic Outlook: Samsung, anticipating positive consumer response to GenAI functions, strategically raises shipment forecasts for the Galaxy S24 series.



Ming-Chi Kuo’s projections highlight a pivotal period for Apple as it grapples with structural shifts and intensified competition in the smartphone landscape. The decline in shipments signals evolving consumer preferences toward innovative features, while Apple’s sustained market share in China underscores its continued relevance. The GenAI race adds a layer of anticipation, with both Apple and Samsung positioning themselves for the next phase of smartphone evolution. Apple’s strategic responses to these challenges will be crucial in shaping its trajectory and competitiveness in the ever-evolving global smartphone market.


Via @ medium


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